Are Large Oil Price Declines Sustainable?

CIA-RDP86T00303R000400460002-8

This paper examines hypothetically the impact of several alternative price scenarios on the oil market-$33, $30, $25, $20, and $15 a barrel-to determine how sustainable these prices might be over the next three years, given likely reactions in the oil market and the policies of the governments of oil-exporting countries. The analytical approach uses a mix of judgment and econometric relationships. The framework of analysis is a straightforward accounting process in which the role of each factor affecting the oil market can be distinguished and the sensitivity of the overall results to different judgments can be tested. Econometric findings were used to project particular relationships, but alternative projections were made to accommodate a broader range of judgments. Where feasible, results were checked for reasonableness.










































































Date:
April 15, 1983
Categories:
Tags:
Boxes:
Years:
Persons:
META DATA
Scroll to Top