Caribbean Basin Overview – 9 January 1982

CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8

I. Caribbean Basin Overview

  • Region: 24 countries and 11 soon-to-be independent entities
  • Population: 163 million in the Caribbean Sea and rimland from Suriname to the US border; 93 million live from Panama to the US border.

Two Dimensions of Strategic Interest and Threat

A. Continuation of Subversive Momentum

  • Increasingly supported by Cuba since 1978
  • Could produce several more hostile Marxist-Leninist regimes in Central America by 1983-84
  • According to September 1981 NIE, this could “bring the revolution to Mexico’s border, thereby raising the risks of internal destabilization.”

B. Caribbean Vulnerabilities

  • 45% of all trade and crude oil passes through the Caribbean
  • 50% of US petroleum is processed in Caribbean refineries
  • 50% of NATO wartime supplies would pass through Caribbean
  • Sea lines of communication have become more vulnerable (1970: 200 Soviet shipdays; 1980: 2,600 Soviet shipdays)
  • A communist Central America with 20 million people could have military forces of ~500,000 if Nicaraguan/Cuban proportions held

II. Cuban Threat and Actions – Three Types

A. Military Power and Buildup

  • 250,000-person army plus ready reserves of 100,000–130,000
  • More than 200 MIGs, 650 tanks, 90 helicopters, and other modern weapons
  • 1981: massive Soviet-supplied modernization, including 100 major new weapons (MIG-23, SA-6); 66,000 metric tons

B. Cuban Troop Deployment

  • 38,000 troops supporting pro-Soviet regimes (Ethiopia, Angola, Mozambique, South Yemen)
  • Plus 30,000 Cuban civilians

C. Cuban Support for Subversion

  • Nicaragua fully partnered against El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica
  • 6,000 Cubans in Nicaragua, ~1,800 military/security
  • Clear pattern of unification, training, weapons, communications, propaganda, and funds
  • Full Soviet Bloc support
  • Grenada as propaganda partner: 75 KW radio (strongest in Eastern Caribbean after Cuba’s planned 100 KW radio)
  • Cuba politically active in Mexico

III. Brief Country Reviews – Two Caribbean Contexts

A. Serious Subversion and Economic Problems (most of Central America and Colombia)

El Salvador

  • 28 March elections expected to trigger attacks on power lines, bridges, military installations, and small towns
  • 24,000-man government security force took 2,200 casualties last year
  • Successful elections may provide a political boost, but guerrillas favored by outside support and economic destruction

Guatemala

  • Guerrilla activity sharply increased; forces doubled to 4,500
  • Cuba and Nicaragua appear to be increasing support
  • Outcome depends on Salvador’s stability and Guatemalan internal policies

Honduras

  • Constitutional government restored Jan 1982
  • Cubans/Nicaraguans working to unify extreme left for insurgency over 12–18 months
  • Some terrorist actions began in 1981, likely to increase
  • Guerrilla unity meeting scheduled mid-Feb 1982 in Havana

Costa Rica

  • Successful election 7 Feb; new Social Democratic president anti-communist, taking office May 1982
  • Cuba/Nicaragua financing radical left front and paramilitary forces to destabilize Costa Rica

B. Countries with Mainly Economic Problems (16 countries with 113M population)

  • Economies affected by high oil prices, declining commodity prices (sugar, coffee, bauxite), stagnating investment, rising unemployment, and declining tourism
  • Middle-class emigration removing technical skills and political leadership (especially Suriname and Guyana)
  • Youth increasingly susceptible to leftist influence (median age 16)
  • Governments lack adequate security/intelligence structures, vulnerable to radical, Cuban, and Libyan-backed movements

IV. International Involvement in Crisis Areas

For El Salvador Government & Regional Moderates

  • Support from Christian Democratic parties of Europe/Latin America
  • National/international condemnation of extreme left
  • Frequent endorsements of Duarte government (Dec 1981)
  • Support from international non-communist trade unions
  • Latin American democracies (Venezuela, Colombia)
  • Sept 1981: 15 nations condemned Mexican-French initiative
  • Dec 1981: OAS vote in St. Lucia endorses Salvador election; Nicaragua, Mexico, Grenada opposed
  • 19 Jan 1982: Formation of Central American Democratic Community (El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica)

For Extreme Left

  • Libya: $100M aid, advisors in Nicaragua, seeks activity in Trinidad, Dominica, Bahamas, St. Lucia
  • Palestinian groups: ~500 guerrillas trained since 1979; admitted by Arafat
  • DFLP Soviet-controlled involvement; Soviet encouragement since 1979
  • Concern among Social Democrats about Marxist-Leninist regime in Nicaragua

V. Central America: Guerrilla Strengths & Economic Growth Rates (1960–81)

CountryGuerrillasGNP (%)
Nicaragua150 → 4,500+6.4 → +10
El Salvador0 → 4,500+5.5 → -10
Guatemala300 → 4,500+5.2 → -2
Honduras0 → 100+4.5 → 0
Costa Rica0 → 0+5.1 → -5.0

Key Events:

  • 3/79: Havana meeting re: Nicaragua
  • 7/79: FSLN victory in Nicaragua
  • 12/79: Havana meeting on El Salvador
  • 3/80: Land reform in El Salvador
  • 1/81: Failure of offensive in El Salvador
  • 5/80: Formation of FDCR/Guatemala

VI. Caribbean Basin: Population & Country Statistics (9 Feb 1982)

Country/RegionPopulation (millions)
Mexico70
Guatemala7.2
El Salvador5.0
Honduras3.7
Nicaragua2.5
Costa Rica2.3
Belize0.1
Panama2
Venezuela15
Colombia27
Caribbean (14 independent + 11 dependent entities)28
Cuba9.9
Haiti5.8
Dominican Republic5.7
Jamaica2.2
Trinidad & Tobago1.1
Guyana0.8
Suriname0.35
Barbados0.28
Bahamas0.24
St. Lucia0.12
St. Vincent0.11
Grenada0.10
Dominica0.08
Antigua0.07
Dependent Entities Total1.10
TOTAL163

VII. Note from Director of Central Intelligence

To: Mr. Robert Gates, DDI
Date: 9 January 1982
From: Constantine C. Menges, NIO/LA

In response to the request of the DCI this morning, I gave him a first draft of this Caribbean Basin intelligence briefing for possible use at the NSC meeting tomorrow. Your comments and suggestions on this draft would be welcome.

Attachment: 1

Source:

CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8

Link:

Internal Link:

https://surinamepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/CARIBBEAN-BASIN-OVERVIEW-1981-CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8.pdf

Date:
January 9, 1982
Categories:
Tags:
CIA
Boxes:
CIA-RDP84B00049R
Years:
1981
Persons:
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