Caribbean Basin Overview – 9 January 1982

CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8

I. Caribbean Basin Overview

  • Region: 24 countries and 11 soon-to-be independent entities
  • Population: 163 million in the Caribbean Sea and rimland from Suriname to the US border; 93 million live from Panama to the US border.

Two Dimensions of Strategic Interest and Threat

A. Continuation of Subversive Momentum

  • Increasingly supported by Cuba since 1978
  • Could produce several more hostile Marxist-Leninist regimes in Central America by 1983-84
  • According to September 1981 NIE, this could “bring the revolution to Mexico’s border, thereby raising the risks of internal destabilization.”

B. Caribbean Vulnerabilities

  • 45% of all trade and crude oil passes through the Caribbean
  • 50% of US petroleum is processed in Caribbean refineries
  • 50% of NATO wartime supplies would pass through Caribbean
  • Sea lines of communication have become more vulnerable (1970: 200 Soviet shipdays; 1980: 2,600 Soviet shipdays)
  • A communist Central America with 20 million people could have military forces of ~500,000 if Nicaraguan/Cuban proportions held

II. Cuban Threat and Actions – Three Types

A. Military Power and Buildup

  • 250,000-person army plus ready reserves of 100,000–130,000
  • More than 200 MIGs, 650 tanks, 90 helicopters, and other modern weapons
  • 1981: massive Soviet-supplied modernization, including 100 major new weapons (MIG-23, SA-6); 66,000 metric tons

B. Cuban Troop Deployment

  • 38,000 troops supporting pro-Soviet regimes (Ethiopia, Angola, Mozambique, South Yemen)
  • Plus 30,000 Cuban civilians

C. Cuban Support for Subversion

  • Nicaragua fully partnered against El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica
  • 6,000 Cubans in Nicaragua, ~1,800 military/security
  • Clear pattern of unification, training, weapons, communications, propaganda, and funds
  • Full Soviet Bloc support
  • Grenada as propaganda partner: 75 KW radio (strongest in Eastern Caribbean after Cuba’s planned 100 KW radio)
  • Cuba politically active in Mexico

III. Brief Country Reviews – Two Caribbean Contexts

A. Serious Subversion and Economic Problems (most of Central America and Colombia)

El Salvador

  • 28 March elections expected to trigger attacks on power lines, bridges, military installations, and small towns
  • 24,000-man government security force took 2,200 casualties last year
  • Successful elections may provide a political boost, but guerrillas favored by outside support and economic destruction

Guatemala

  • Guerrilla activity sharply increased; forces doubled to 4,500
  • Cuba and Nicaragua appear to be increasing support
  • Outcome depends on Salvador’s stability and Guatemalan internal policies

Honduras

  • Constitutional government restored Jan 1982
  • Cubans/Nicaraguans working to unify extreme left for insurgency over 12–18 months
  • Some terrorist actions began in 1981, likely to increase
  • Guerrilla unity meeting scheduled mid-Feb 1982 in Havana

Costa Rica

  • Successful election 7 Feb; new Social Democratic president anti-communist, taking office May 1982
  • Cuba/Nicaragua financing radical left front and paramilitary forces to destabilize Costa Rica

B. Countries with Mainly Economic Problems (16 countries with 113M population)

  • Economies affected by high oil prices, declining commodity prices (sugar, coffee, bauxite), stagnating investment, rising unemployment, and declining tourism
  • Middle-class emigration removing technical skills and political leadership (especially Suriname and Guyana)
  • Youth increasingly susceptible to leftist influence (median age 16)
  • Governments lack adequate security/intelligence structures, vulnerable to radical, Cuban, and Libyan-backed movements

IV. International Involvement in Crisis Areas

For El Salvador Government & Regional Moderates

  • Support from Christian Democratic parties of Europe/Latin America
  • National/international condemnation of extreme left
  • Frequent endorsements of Duarte government (Dec 1981)
  • Support from international non-communist trade unions
  • Latin American democracies (Venezuela, Colombia)
  • Sept 1981: 15 nations condemned Mexican-French initiative
  • Dec 1981: OAS vote in St. Lucia endorses Salvador election; Nicaragua, Mexico, Grenada opposed
  • 19 Jan 1982: Formation of Central American Democratic Community (El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica)

For Extreme Left

  • Libya: $100M aid, advisors in Nicaragua, seeks activity in Trinidad, Dominica, Bahamas, St. Lucia
  • Palestinian groups: ~500 guerrillas trained since 1979; admitted by Arafat
  • DFLP Soviet-controlled involvement; Soviet encouragement since 1979
  • Concern among Social Democrats about Marxist-Leninist regime in Nicaragua

V. Central America: Guerrilla Strengths & Economic Growth Rates (1960–81)

Country Guerrillas GNP (%)
Nicaragua 150 → 4,500 +6.4 → +10
El Salvador 0 → 4,500 +5.5 → -10
Guatemala 300 → 4,500 +5.2 → -2
Honduras 0 → 100 +4.5 → 0
Costa Rica 0 → 0 +5.1 → -5.0

Key Events:

  • 3/79: Havana meeting re: Nicaragua
  • 7/79: FSLN victory in Nicaragua
  • 12/79: Havana meeting on El Salvador
  • 3/80: Land reform in El Salvador
  • 1/81: Failure of offensive in El Salvador
  • 5/80: Formation of FDCR/Guatemala

VI. Caribbean Basin: Population & Country Statistics (9 Feb 1982)

Country/Region Population (millions)
Mexico 70
Guatemala 7.2
El Salvador 5.0
Honduras 3.7
Nicaragua 2.5
Costa Rica 2.3
Belize 0.1
Panama 2
Venezuela 15
Colombia 27
Caribbean (14 independent + 11 dependent entities) 28
Cuba 9.9
Haiti 5.8
Dominican Republic 5.7
Jamaica 2.2
Trinidad & Tobago 1.1
Guyana 0.8
Suriname 0.35
Barbados 0.28
Bahamas 0.24
St. Lucia 0.12
St. Vincent 0.11
Grenada 0.10
Dominica 0.08
Antigua 0.07
Dependent Entities Total 1.10
TOTAL 163

VII. Note from Director of Central Intelligence

To: Mr. Robert Gates, DDI
Date: 9 January 1982
From: Constantine C. Menges, NIO/LA

In response to the request of the DCI this morning, I gave him a first draft of this Caribbean Basin intelligence briefing for possible use at the NSC meeting tomorrow. Your comments and suggestions on this draft would be welcome.

Attachment: 1

Source:

CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8

Link:

Internal Link:

https://surinamepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/CARIBBEAN-BASIN-OVERVIEW-1981-CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8.pdf

Date:

January 9, 1982

Categories:

Tags:

CIA

Boxes:

CIA-RDP84B00049R

Years:

1981

Persons:

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