HPSCI Briefing – Guerrilla Threat to the Bouterse Regime – 16 September 1986

CIA-RDP91B00874R000100260002-2

Agenda Items

  • Suriname: Guerrilla Threat to the Bouterse Regime (TPs & map)
  • Bolivia: Update (TPs)
  • Philippines: The Political Outlook (TPs and table)
  • Philippines: The Economic Outlook (TPs)
  • Philippines: The State of the Communist and Muslem Insurgencies (TPs)
  • Lebanon: Specifics on the Recent Kidnapings (TPs will be late)
  • Lebanon/Syria: Impact of the Kidnapings (TPs & map)

Background and Other Information

  • Afghanistan: The Insurgency This Summer (TPs from last week)
  • Iran/Iraq: Larak Island Crude-Loading Terminal (NID of 11 Sept)

Suriname

Plagued by incompetent military leadership, failing troop morale and possible defections, the six-year-old regime of Desire Bouterse has made little headway in controlling guerrilla activity in the east.

  • [CENSORED]
  • Since mid-July, there have been at least seven confirmed rebel attacks in eastern Suriname, bringing acknowledged military casualties to about 19 and possible defections to more than a dozen in the 2,000-man Army.
  • A civilian helicopter supplied by a Brazilian firm to upgrade the military’s search and transport capabilities reportedly was destroyed by the rebels. The Surinamese apparently have no other helicopter in their inventory at this time.
  • State-controlled media claim that the military destroyed the rebels’ base camp last week, but there are no confirmed reports of rebel casualties.

There is growing evidence that civilian and military support for Bouterse is thin.

  • Leaders of Suriname’s traditional parties and some labor unions have publicly supported Bouterse during the crisis, partly out of fear, but the populace has not rallied behind him.
  • The military has alienated the Bush Negroes who control eastern Suriname, and some may be at least passively supporting Brunswijk, himself a Bush Negro.
  • [CENSORED]
  • If Bouterse tries to maintain power in the face of continued guerrilla activity, he may eventually accept offers of assistance from Libya or other radical states.

If the regime falls — which seems unlikely in the near-term unless Bouterse continues to lose the support of the military or the rebels dramatically improve their fundraising, supply, and political organization — there would be a substantial chance of prolonged instability. Unlike the case in 1980 when Bouterse and his group of sergeants seized power, the Army probably would not be united.

  • Should Bouterse be ousted by the military or voluntarily relinquish power, the armed forces would probably choose one of their own to try to fill the power vacuum. We have little information on possible military successors, however, and the military could fracture.
  • Although the traditional parties probably would try to resist ceding power to another military dictator, they may be fearful enough of an exile-inspired coup led by former bank robber Brunswijk to try to enlist the help of an apolitical military leader who would ostensibly return to the barracks after defeating the rebels.
  • In the unlikely event Brunswijk seized power, he would probably lack sufficient support in the military to consolidate his position. Little is known about the political ideology of Brunswijk or those who claim to work with him. The claim of some exiles that he has a political program calling for a return to democracy and severance of relations with such countries as Libya is obviously designed to win Western backing. [CENSORED][CENSORED][CENSORED]
  • Should the rebels turn to exile leaders to govern, factionalism among the disparate foreign groups would damage their ability to control the government. Moreover, the traditional parties and labor unions that recently won some political concessions from Bouterse would be reluctant to risk losing their new privileges in a potentially unstable coalition.

Source:

CIA-RDP91B00874R000100260002-2

Link:

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP91B00874R000100260002-2.pdf

Internal Link:

https://surinamepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/HPSCI-Briefing-for-16-September-1986-CIA-RDP91B00874R000100260002-2.pdf

Date:
September 16, 1986
Categories:
Desi Bouterse, Planned Suriname Invasion
Tags:
Agenda, CIA, HPCSI, Invasion
Boxes:
CIA-RDP88B00443R
Years:
1986
Persons:
Desi Bouterse
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