Overview: Central America/Mexico – 21 March 1983

Democratic trends in Latin America 1983 – CIA-RDP85M00363R000501130005-1


I. Democratic trends in Latin America
23 of 32 countries with 70% of population are democratic (17) or liberalizing (6)

II. Soviet Bloc/Cuban/Nicaraguan support for guerrillas/subversion

III.

  • Targets include democratic as well as authoritarian regimes
    — recall 1960s Marxist Leninist guerrillas against Venezuela, Uruguay
    — since 1978 a massive increase and targets include democratic Colombia, Costa Rica
  • Large scale of Cuban support for subversion illustrated by actions on three continents
    • Africa – 70,000 military and other personnel; active in 14 countries
    • Middle East – working closely with Libya, South Yemen, PLO
    • Latin America – 8,000 Cubans in Nicaragua; Cubans helping dictatorships consolidate power in Grenada, Nicaragua, Suriname…plus current major subversive operations in Central America, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Chile
  • Conclusive evidence of Soviet Bloc/Cuban support for the violent left in Central America provides location of training camps, command centers, arms supply routes
  • We have evidence of Nicaragua-based command and control of guerrilla forces
  • Adds by showing massive Soviet Bloc arms inflow to Nicaragua, airfields, arms supply to guerrillas (PAPALONAL example), 40 new military bases
  • Capture of safe houses, arms supply cars and trucks in Costa Rica/Honduras; illustrate cooperation among regional Marxist-Leninist terrorists and Cuban/Nicaraguan support (example: July 1982 Colombian M-19 member caught in Costa Rica with Nicaraguan embassy officers as his controls, also caught in terrorism campaign against the anti-communist social democratic president, Luis Alberto Monge)

IV. Nicaragua – the real situation

Internal

  • Marxist-Leninist Directorate in control with new secret police army, 8,000 Cubans, 500 or more Soviet Bloc, Libyan, PLO personnel
  • Genuinely democratic groups (parties, trade unions, church, business) still exist but have no power
  • Sandinistas have broken the democratic promises made in July 1979 and OAS required
  • Anti-Sandinistas are NOT SOMOCISTAS, rather want to implement democracy

External

  • Full cooperation with Soviet Bloc/Cuba…treaties since March 1980 Moscow visit
  • Massive military build-up and export of subversion continues
  • Western economic aid has been generous and has had no moderating effect
    — Since July 1979 Western aid $1.6 billion of which $1.2 billion bilateral
    — All the rest of Central America received only $750 million in bilateral aid
    — European socialist international legitimation of the Sandinistas has been a major factor

V. Three forces are competing in El Salvador

  • Violent right – many large landowners angered by the land reforms plus non-governmental groups, some elects of the ARENA party and no more than 10-15% of the military/security leadership
  • Violent left led by the FMLN/DRU formed in Havana at Castro’s initiative
    — Consists of six Marxist-Leninist groups including the Communist Party
    — Non-Marxist-Leninist component is very small (400 among 4,000-6,000 guerrilla fighters), has no real influence and is self-admittedly under the command of the Marxist-Leninists
  • Responsible political forces ranging from Christian democrats, other centrists, conservatives also includes democratic trade unions (UPD/UCS), most of the business community, Catholic Church leadership and 85% of the military officers

Accomplishments

  • Continuing the battle against the violent left and substantially weakening the power of the violent right
  • Elections in 1982 with 85% participation and those scheduled for late 1983
  • Land reforms implemented since March/April 1980 with benefits for 550,000 peasants

Source:

CIA-RDP85M00363R000501130005-1.pdf

Link:

Internal Link:

https://surinamepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Democratic-trends-in-Latin-America-1983-CIA-RDP85M00363R000501130005-1.pdf

Date:
March 21, 1983
Categories:
Cold War, Military & Intel
Tags:
Boxes:
CIA-RDP85M00363R
Years:
1983
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