Suriname: New Government – National Intelligence Daily – 2 April 1982
CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010117-6
INTELLIGENCE
Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily (Cable)
2 April 1982
Top Secret
CPAS NIDC 82-077C
2 April 1982
Copy 402
Contents
| Page | Title |
|---|---|
| 1 | Central America: Salvadoran Political Maneuvering |
| 3 | Argentina–UK: [CENSORED] |
| 9 | Suriname: New Government |
| 11 | Mauritius–UK: Agreement on Diego Garcia |
| 12 | South Korea: Arson Suspects Apprehended |
CENTRAL AMERICA: Salvadoran Political Maneuvering
Junta President Duarte is trying to preserve a role for his Christian Democrats in the new government.
In Guatemala, the new junta still has made no firm commitment on a timetable for transition to a civilian government.
The Soviet Ambassador to Nicaragua is supporting a negotiated solution to regional conflicts.
The co-governing Christian Democrats have publicly called upon the rightist parties to join them in discussing the formation of the new Salvadoran Government.
In their manifesto, the Christian Democrats noted that they received a plurality in all but one of the country’s 14 departments. Duarte has called for a mass rally today to underscore popular support for the Christian Democrats.
//The military, meanwhile, is maintaining a low political profile after successfully providing security for the elections. The armed forces reportedly made no attempt to influence the electoral outcome.//
Comment:
The Christian Democrats’ actions are calculated to undercut the rightist claim of a popular electoral victory. Today’s rally is likely to be well attended and probably will be peaceful, although there is some potential for clashes with rightist supporters.
The military’s apparent political neutrality during the balloting will contribute to improving its domestic and international image. Furthermore, the results should reduce any pressures by rightist officers to stage a coup.
GUATEMALAN JUNTA SILENT ON ELECTIONS
Junta President Rios Montt remains vague and noncommittal concerning a return to constitutional process and the possibility of new elections.
In a meeting early this week with the US Ambassador, Rios Montt stressed that the junta was still selecting cabinet members and gave no indication of how long it will take to reinstitute constitutional procedures.
Meanwhile, leaders of the centrist Christian Democratic and rightwing Movement of National Liberation parties presented Rios Montt with a document outlining suggested steps to constitutional rule, but again he was noncommittal.
Comment:
Rios Montt probably will need to make a statement concerning eventual civilian rule to alleviate apprehensions about the intentions of the junta. Most political party leaders are not pushing for early elections, however, because they believe this would benefit the wealthier and better organized Movement of National Liberation.
ARGENTINA–UK: [CENSORED]
//Buenos Aires was unresponsive to UK and US diplomatic efforts yesterday to move the dispute onto a diplomatic track. At the emergency UN Security Council session last night, Argentina defended its claims to sovereignty over the islands.//
//The Argentines enjoy a preponderance of military strength in the area and could deploy as many as 500 to 1,000 well-armed naval infantry troops to the Falklands, with the probable objectives of securing Port Stanley and the nearby airfield to prevent reinforcement by the UK.//
//British forces in the islands include about 80 lightly armed marines, and the able-bodied among the predominantly male 1,800 civilians are organized into a home guard unit, which would probably also resist.//
They are impelled both by strategic interests and a strong sense of nationalism. Galtieri may embody these attributes even more than his predecessors.
//The President reacts vigorously to challenges and has approached the Falklands issue with a strong belief that Argentina deserves greater respect on the world stage. He was especially stung, therefore, by his perception that the British treated his negotiating proposals made in February with disregard.//
//In a fighting mood, Galtieri and the junta quickly came to view the impasse as a military rather than diplomatic problem, and they may now be too far committed to permit pulling back without serious loss of prestige. The British have made clear, however, that any invasion will be met with force. They will use their UN diplomatic efforts to justify military countermeasures.//
Page Denied — [CENSORED]
SURINAME: New Government
Suriname’s new civilian government, a mix of moderates and radicals controlled by the leftist military, will be hampered by racial tensions and strained relations with the Netherlands.
//Prime Minister Neijhorst also will serve as Minister of Finance, a post he held in ousted President Chin A Sen’s government. The new Council of Ministers is subordinate to the military-controlled Policy Center.//
Before announcing the new government, the military rescinded the “state of war” decreed after the coup attempt on 11 March. The decree, coinciding with disclosures of backing by ethnic East Indians for the coup, had raised fears of possible racial violence.
Comment:
The coup attempt probably caused Army Commander Bouterse to defer introducing radical changes and issue the new “Transitional Constitution” defining citizen rights and forbidding discrimination in an effort to reduce domestic tensions and deprive opponents of an issue. The new government, however, may find it difficult to calm the East Indians, who remember the racially polarized politics of the 1970s.
The Policy Center’s dominance and the appointment of several military officers to ministerial positions give Bouterse power to govern without restriction. The handpicked civilian ministers will be easily manipulated by the military to continue Suriname’s adoption of more socialist policies, which most already favor.
Neijhorst probably will have to agree to restore some democratic procedures in order to secure the development aid already promised by the Dutch, the former colonial rulers. The Hague is angered by the dismissal of Chin A Sen and the execution of one of the coup leaders and has postponed talks on assistance programs indefinitely.
MAURITIUS–UK: Agreement on Diego Garcia
The UK and Mauritius have agreed that London will pay almost $8 million compensation to the 1,200 displaced inhabitants of Diego Garcia, who since 1965 have been resettled in Mauritius. The Mauritian Government will provide land for the Diego Garcians. Paul Berenger, the leftist leader of Mauritius’s largest opposition party, was a member of the committee representing the displaced people, and he reportedly concurred in the agreement.
Comment:
//The accord resolves a nettlesome problem and deprives the opposition of one issue with which to attack the moderate government of Prime Minister Ramgoolam before the general elections in June. The settlement, however, will not prevent the opposition from charging Ramgoolam with wrongly giving away Mauritius’s claim to sovereignty over Diego Garcia or from criticizing the US military presence on the island. If Berenger wins the election, he will continue to assert Mauritian territorial claims and will insist that the US deal with Mauritius rather than with the UK regarding Diego Garcia.//
SOUTH KOREA: Arson Suspects Apprehended
South Korean police have captured most of the 13 dissidents suspected of involvement in the recent burning of the American Cultural Center in Pusan. The police state that those arrested are college students who hoped to damage US–Korean ties and create social turmoil. No direct North Korean involvement in the incident has been uncovered, although authorities are still probing this possibility.
Comment:
The government’s use of over 100,000 police in the investigation underscores its determination to discourage any similar anti-American behavior in the future. Authorities will use the incident as an excuse to crack down even harder on student demonstrations during the spring semester, traditionally a period of campus restiveness.
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